2017 after National Day, downstream “ double demand of 11 ” stock up ends stage by stage, suffer downstream demand atrophy to affect, together with price of the waste paper before this has been fried the history is new tall, market sentiment tends stage by stage sober, paper price appeared to drop, lowest drops to about 1750 yuan / ton, the biggest drop exceeded 40% , national useless price begins to enter adjust level. Will integratedly look, the country abandoned the price to rise quickly 2017, main reason has at 3 o’clock:
(The environmental protection superintend and director with strict 1) checks the supply side reform that promoted papermaking trade, papermaking industry took the lead in finishing blowdown licence extend, unqualified paper look forward to is closed to stop;
(Useless import quota is contractive outside 2) , dropped than importing amount 2016 2017 10% , additional, useless quota extends in the beginning of the year for the most part outside, 3 quarters begin outside useless import quota is less. Home is annual waste paper demand makes an appointment with 78 million tons, import volume occupies quantity of total demand to get about 35% , useless entrance forehead reduces need to rely on a country to abandon complement outside, but domestic waste paper reclaims rate promotion is slow process, because of spurt in prices of this home waste paper.
(Psychology brings about the panic of 3) market to intensify stock up downstream, overlay abandons what new rule comes on stage to anticipate external, quickened waste paper to rise in price, the most rising go to nearly 3000 yuan / ton.
To 2018, national useless price suffers outside management of useless import quota continues to ring from Yan Ying, the country abandons price centre hopeful to go up, but appear similar the possibility of the prices of “ switchback ” 2017 is lesser, reasonable supply demand relations makes regression of hopeful of national useless price rational. Basically have reason of face of the following all directions:
The country after the Spring Festival is useless do not have rise in price continuously kinetic energy
The first, the paper price since the Spring Festival ends rises is to rebound fill go up, the board year agoCorrugated paperDrop more, draw near the Spring Festival, industry of paper of dragon of bibcock enterprise nine takes the lead in releasing rise in price case, other company also has rise in price certainly anticipate, but the whole before the Spring Festival is handed in cast weaker, did not appear with go up, rise after the section understandable go up to follow anticipate be born; The 2nd, the —— that the demand since the Spring Festival is level sex and in former years are different, quantity of downstream stock up is far before the Spring Festival 2018 under in former years, whole of quantity of downstream stock up is not active before the section, demand of sex of occurrence phase of waste paper of the start working after the section increases. Above all is short-term catalysis, do not have last rise in price kinetic energy.
Waste paper imports new rule be born, market panic mood is stabilized somewhat
Environmental protection ministry released waste paper to import new rule on December 15, 2017, the treatment that the regulation in formal document applies to import waste paper to permit uses business productivity by 300 thousand tons in asking for an opinion to stalk of grain / year adjust it is 50 thousand tons / year, standard of percentage of impurity is formerly 1.5% , asking for an opinion to stalk of grain is 0.3% , final result is 0.5% . The situation with policy tight hasten is changeless, but the requirement that stalks of grain than seeking an opinion is proper and comfortable, we judge the market after be born of policy of outer useless import, the market won’t be panicky like same last year occurrence collective.
Useless quota allocates outside more will reasonable
Forehead of waste paper of before 2018 7 batches of entrances is spent aggregate extend five million four hundred and eighteen thousand five hundred tons, relatively before 2017 7 batches decrease compared to the same period 80.12% . Of quota of import of waste paper of in former years extend to basically be in the first batch centrally, sequel extends each batches stage by stage a few quota, and each approve number amount to tend relatively this year gently, predict to won’t appear similar the useless import quota is in short supply 2017 circumstance outside second half of the year.
Paper of paper of arris of entrance box pan tile forms certain complement to domestic supply and demand, the demand of domestic waste paper reduced on certain level
Price of entrance board corrugated paper under homebred board corrugated paper, but as a result ofWrapping paperHave certain carriage radius, existence carries cost certainly, but rise quickly in domestic paper value period, still can regard homebred board as the effective complement of corrugated paper. Imported corrugated paper 2017 six hundred and forty-eight thousand six hundred tons, increase compared to the same period 666.25% , imported 2017Board paperEight hundred and ninety-six thousand three hundred tons, increase compared to the same period 37.10% .
Can say, began 2018, industry of whole wrapping paper had appeared the omen that train of thought transforms, acute of quantity of Spring Festival stock up is decreased even if among them one of. Waste paper imports quota to examine and approve hasten to father, predict waste paper imported an amount 2018 will less than 2017 20% , because this country abandons price centre to will go up,move, but the market will be more rational, predicting state useless price will be in 2000 yuan / ton go to 2500 yuan / ton inside interval.